Value betting is simple in theory: you bet when the odds are higher than the true probability.

You don’t need to “predict every winner”. You need to spot when the market price is wrong.

Example:
If you believe a team has a 60% chance to win, fair odds are around 1.66.
If the bookmaker offers 1.90, that’s potential value.

Key point: You can lose a value bet and still be correct long-term. That’s why discipline matters.